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Sunday, December 30, 2012

Why I Will Not Vote For Any President

The behavior of Kenyan voters is also akin to the man who goes out for a drink in a bar full of prostitutes with too much make up. One blacker-than-the-darkest-night woman chooses to use scarlet red lipstick and looks like something out of a Hollywood horror movie... By the time the man’s watch says it is 2 am all the women and especially the dark-black-complexion-in-red-lipstick woman look like angels...
In Kenya it is now 2 am 
Come March 4th and I will NOT vote any of the clowns thus far before us. I am through with this story of voting for the lesser evil which is what I have done in past elections.

If you look at the leading contenders for the Kenyan presidency not a single one of them is qualified for the highest office in the land so much so that we have no business even discussing their merits and de-merits. Opinion polls show that a man who has been an equal partner of the irresponsible slow-to-act-no-security-in-the-country government of the last 5 years is set to be elected. Close in his heels in the polls is an ICC suspect… and I can go on and on.

Regular readers of Kumekucha will know that I have a simple but effective system for gauging the mood on the ground and I can tell you that Kenyans are very much in an election mood. The problem is the vast majority have stopped thinking.

We Kenyans have a very serious problem when it comes to election time, we usually stop thinking and start behaving very strangely indeed. Only to start complaining about bad leadership just a few months down the road when the honeymoon is over and the clowns we have elected have to actually get down to the work of being our leaders.

Let me illustrate this for you a little more vividly. The old dukawallas (Asian shopkeepers) of Kenya were always a very disciplined lot and that is how most ended up making so much money. They used to have a saying that went like this;

Mboro simama akili potea

For those who don’t know Swahili it simply means that when a certain part of the male anatomy is gorged with blood (to be more specific the tool that ensures that you do not go six feet under without leaving heirs to your property or stupidity) you stop thinking.

This rather crude saying is loaded with truth because we all know how most people start behaving when that part of their body is gorged with blood. They forget that the object of their desire is their best friends’ wife or the age mate of their mother. The brain literally stops functioning momentarily and all reasoning flies out of the window. That’s where Kenyan voters are right now.

As you read this my information is that there are major erections in Central province over Uhuru Kenyatta. The same is happening in Nyanza over one Raila Odinga.

The behavior of Kenyan voters is also akin to the man who goes out for a drink in a bar full of prostitutes with too much make up. One blacker-than-the-darkest-night woman chooses to use scarlet red lipstick and looks like something out of a Hollywood horror movie. As the man sips his first beer he can hardly look at the ugly things. A few drinks later the very same ladies start looking very attractive, even sexy. By the time the man’s watch says it is 2 am all the women and especially the dark-black-complexion-in-red-lipstick woman look like angels.

When the man wakes up the next morning he finds that he had unprotected sex with somebody he cannot even look at without rushing to the bathroom to throw up.

In Kenya it is now 2 am. People who are known to be crooks have suddenly evolved into viable and even attractive presidential candidates. 3 months after the election it will be the next morning and we will find that we have elected the usual suspects to take us through another 5 years of hell on earth. The difference between Kenyan voters and the man who woke up next to the horror-movie-woman is that he will quickly leave the hotel room. We Kenyan voters will have to remain in that hotel room throwing up regularly in the toilet for 5 long years. Just think about that.

I am well aware of the fact that what I am doing here is akin to playing a guitar for a goat. Nobody wants to listen when there is all the excitement about the upcoming elections.

Yesterday I had a long conversation with a close friend and she told me that in 2007 she voted Kenneth Matiba and so when Kenyans were complaining about the very leaders they elected she had a clear conscience and could live with her decisions.

The truth is that I have no idea how most Kenyans live with their election decisions. Why should anybody elect any of the leading contenders for the presidency and then complain about corruption. How???

How do you keep a venomous snake in your house and then complain that it bit your children? Does that make any sense? Somebody please help me understand.

We are now at the eleventh hour and unless some miracle happens and somebody worthy stands for the president I am not voting for any presidential candidate and my ballot paper will remain blank in that particular category. That is the only way I can look at myself in the mirror for the next five years and continue to write posts here with a clear conscience.



You are also bound to enjoy reading...

Just how clean is Mr. Safi Kama Pamba Peter Kenneth?

Is Uhuru Kenyatta a drunkard?

What is it that leading Presidential candidates in 2013 don't want you to know? 

Kibaki laughs at pretender MPs praising his rule

Cashing in on Uhuru's troubles

Where it all started Uhuru's secret deal with Kibaki in 2007

Friday, December 21, 2012

Crime Escalates In Kenya As Naïve Decision Makers Continue To Bark Up The Wrong Trees


David Kimaiyo: Kenya's first inspector general who incidentally was director of operations at police headquarters at the height of the post election troubles in 2008. Fighting crime should not be left to the police and he is doomed to fail if the next administration approches crime in the same manner as the Kibaki administration did.

A few days ago a Matatu headed to Eastleigh was hijacked by six smartly dressed gunmen who robbed all the passengers of cash and cell phones.

As I write this post, this incident has yet to be reported anywhere in the local media.

There are a number of interesting things we need to point out about this latest incident. Firstly it happened in broad daylight (at about 2 pm). Secondly the fact that they picked a matatu headed for Nairobi’s “Mogadishu” Estate was no accident. These matatus are usually packed with traders from Nairobi and indeed all over the country headed to popular wholesale venues like “Garissa Lodge” and others where all kinds of items whose import tax and duty has not been paid can be obtained very cheaply thus assuring retailers a handsome profit. They are usually carrying huge sums of cash and it is not unrealistic for robbers to get Kshs 1 million or more from a single matatu headed to Eastleigh. What that means is that anybody hijacking a matatu on this particular route is bound to make off with a very hefty sum of cash. As opposed to robbing a No 8 Matatu headed to the sprawling Kibera slums for instance.

What should really worry Kenyans here is whether the country has gone back to the Major-Hussein-Ali policy of fighting crime by NOT reporting major crimes so as to give the impression that crime was on a downward trend. At one point the police commissioner soldier was literally editing crime stories at the Daily Nation, albeit on phone. You really cannot blame the man with military training who was made a top cop by the Kibaki administration for that kind of thinking. In a military war (as opposed to a war on crime) propaganda is such a critical weapon that it has single-handedly won many major battles and even wars throughout history and when used well can be more lethal than any guns and ammunition on the ground. This is a historical fact starting right from the beginning of time an even in biblical times when a might army was defeated by simply being given the impression that there was a very big army marching against them when in reality there was actually nothing but some serious sound effects from the Almighty himself.

The only problem is that when fighting crime, propaganda has quite the opposite effect. If I was a violent criminal and nobody was reporting about what I was doing I would be delighted. It would mean amongst other advantages, that I would be able to retain my element of surprise on unsuspecting victims. The folks who robbed the Eastleigh matatu in broad daylight can do it again and again and many on the route will not even be aware that this was something that had happened before.

Yesterday we mentioned some of the successes of the Kibaki administration but today it is worth mentioning tha one of their biggest failures has been security and the fight against the escalating crime rate in the country.

For the sake of the next administration it is worth analyzing this failure a little deeper.

President Kibaki came into power in 2003 with the firm conviction that crime was one of the easiest of problems on his long list to handle. All the country needed to do was to find the money to increase the number of policemen and women in the force. This was promptly done but predictably nothing happened. Then they came up with the idea of appointing a tough military man to scare the criminals. This too did not work. Finally the president himself took to threatening criminals during his speeches to the public warning them that their days were numbered. Of course all those in crime must have had a good laugh and escalated their activities.

While it is true that we have just gotten a new inspector general who is probably the most competent and qualified person to ever head the police force since independence, even he will not have any impact on the war against crime until the next administration come to the realization that this is something that cannot be left only to the police. The next administration needs to actively pursue policies that are designed to curb crime.

Fighting unemployment like there was no tomorrow is one thing that must be emphasized from day one. More hidden close circuit cameras all over the city and indeed the entire country is yet another step that needs to be taken. Then we need to seriously look at the budget allocated to intelligence and undercover operations which is currently a sick joke. Lastly we need to come to the realization that the fight against crime never ends and so we need to brace ourselves for that.

There are of course many other good ideas that security experts can come up with. It is important to ensure that experts are involved in the decision making process to the highest level because switching off all unregistered cell phones for instance is not going to reduce crime involving cell phones as some smart alecs seem to believe. Indeed those kinds of crimes seem to be on the rise because my wife received a call recently from a man who told her she had won Kshs 100,000 and she should not send money to anybody to get the prize. But meanwhile she was casually asked if she had an Mpesa account. Much later in the conversation she was asked to enter a strange code that would have cleaned out her Mpesa account.

My point is that I often hear the views of Kenya’s middle class and the rich on fighting crime and just laugh my head off. Most Kenyans are so out of touch with the realities in their own country that it just unbelievable. To start with Kenya’s escalating crime rate has a lot to do with the huge number of foreigners we have allowed into the country many of whom do not have any papers. Especially from countries like Nigeria and Somalia. Some of these people are hardened criminals who see criminal opportunities where Kenyans have never dreamt that any exist. Just to give an example. A few years back some Nigerians took a lot of interest in the Post office at the City Square in Nairobi. They place had no security and so they just walked in late at night and spend time picking the locks of mail boxes to read the letters inside. Other Nairobi criminals must have been more than a little surprised as to what their motives were. However a few months later it was reported that companies and individuals were losing millions to intercepted cheques that criminals had found a way to cash. Indeed this is one of the reasons that led to banks refusing to cash third party cheques over the counter.

Why is it that we don’t realize Kenya is now an international hub with all kinds of characters arriving here daily? Long gone are the days when the most serious crime many sleepy rural police stations had to deal with was the theft of chickens. Despite this we expect the same kind of police force equipped in the same way it has always been to deal with the new realities on the ground. Getting more policemen without looking at a number of other policies is just recruiting and sending sons and daughters of Kenyans to unnecessary slaughter in the hands of a new kind of criminal who is extremely sophisticated and more daring than ever before.

Interestingly I have not heard any of the presidential candidates address this issue so far.

You are also bound to enjoy reading...

Kibaki laughs at pretender MPs praising his rule

Cashing in on Uhuru's troubles

Where it all started Uhuru's secret deal with Kibaki in 2007

Just how clean is Mr. Safi Kama Pamba Peter Kenneth?

Is Uhuru Kenyatta a drunkard?

What is it that leading Presidential candidates in 2013 don't want you to know?

Thursday, December 20, 2012

Kibaki Had A Ball Seeing Through The Transparent Dressing of MPs


Yesterday Mwai Kibaki sat in parliament and bathed in the glow of tributes from various legislators across the political divide.

For anybody who has followed the president’s career closely it is not too difficult to guess some of the thoughts that were passing through his mind as he listened to the wolves in sheep’s clothing trying to outdo each other on who would give the most glowing send-off to Number 3 as he completes his second and widely believed to be fraudulent term.

The president of the banana republic receives regular intelligence reports. The reports usually leave out nothing and include who is sleeping with whom and what they said about him as well as what derogatory nickname they usually use to refer to him. That would explain the amused expression that he had on his face most of the time yesterday.

Kibaki is obviously a very different man from the legislator who used to command close attention whenever he stood up to contribute to various debates in the August house. He talks much more slowly these days and walks at a snails’ pace. When he sits down he does so rather heavily. The combination of a terrible accident that almost ended his life about 2 weeks before he was elected in 2002 is probably what is most responsible for the ill health that has dogged his presidency. Thankfully he is the last president who will ever be able to keep his health such a closely guarded state secret. We have our new constitution to thank for that. But there is no denying that the pressures of the office have also taken their toll on Emilio Stanley the staunch lifelong Catholic.

The presidency the world over always appears to be a much easier job until you get to sit on the hot seat yourself. There is plenty of evidence to prove that the president looked down on Moi’s presidency considering him a shallow uneducated man with no university degree who did not deserve to be president. And yet it was to Moi that he turned to help stabilize his shaky government barely a year into his presidency.
No 2 and No 3 have been very close since and there is little doubt that Kibaki’s respect for the Moi presidency has increased tremendously in the last 10 years. His preference for a schooled man over a street smart operator have prevailed though. Hardly surprising when you consider the fact that he would never have gotten anywhere near where he is minus his educational credentials which were rather high and rare in 1960 when the KANU party fetched him from Makerere to be the party's first executive officer.

Clearly Moi was extremely street smart and very disciplined getting up at 4 am every morning. Moi made his decisions quickly and was always the kind of person who could think on his feet. In sharp contrast Kibaki rarely gets out of bed before 11am and often has a siesta in the middle of the day. Indeed he was late by over an hour even for his big day in parliament yesterday. Kibaki’s decision-making prowess has been non-existent and way too slow at best.

Many of those who stood to speak in parliament yesterday recalled various contributions the president made at the height of his parliamentary career. Personally I find it difficult to remove from my mind his famous Mugumo-tree-and-razorblade quip at the height of the fight for a return to multiparty democracy in the 90s against Daniel arap Moi’s dictatorial rule. Kibaki told legislators then trying to fight Moi that what they were attempting to do was akin to trying to cut down a Mugumo tree with a small razor blade. A Mugumo tree is that thick huge old tree that will often defy even an electric saw.

That particular comment stands out on my mind and tells a lot about the kind of person Kibaki is. It is interesting that those who busied themselves trying to cut the Mugumo tree with a razor finally managed but paid a big price for it. Some are dead and others like Kenneth Njindo Matiba have been maimed for life. But Kibaki remained in his comfortable non-committal cocoon and only emerged to cash in on the efforts of others.

Still the truth is that Kenya has changed tremendously under Kibaki and he was the perfect president to prepare Kenya for the next level. Everybody talks about the infrastructural changes that are visible all over the country. Sadly some Kenyans blinded by tribal hatred and the political heat of the moment can hardly see what is pretty obvious.

This blog has been rabidly critical of the Kibaki presidency but today I have chosen to tone down that criticism and have a little empathy for the outgoing member for Othaya. In many ways one of the reasons why he has not achieved half of what he would have achieved has to be blamed on Raila Odinga whom many say did not allow the old man to rule and work for Kenyans in peace. I partially agree with that sentiment but also marvel at how a man who hated politicking so much would rise to the most powerful office in the land still a novice on the basics of a political dog fight.

Mr President, Kumekucha wishes you a happy peaceful retirement and would like to thank you for what you were able to do under rather trying circumstances. Let history be the judge.





Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Guess Who Will Gain Most From Uhuru’s Troubles?


Uhuru pictured with childhood sweetheart/best friend/now wife, Margaret. Kenyatta's candidacy for the presidency is way too emotional for Kenya's good.


The big question that many Kenyans are asking themselves this morning is; what dark forces have such control over presidential candidate Uhuru Kenyatta that they can get him to do exactly what they want? Are these dark forces from another country? Or possibly outer space? (LOL!!!)

The second question nobody is asking but is terribly important is what was Musalia Mudavadi’s motive for letting the cat out of the bag? It would appear that he is cutting his own feet by making public something so sensitive. Now why would he want to do that? Surely he must have known that his announcement will sound a death blow to a pact that some think would have landed him in State house.

One of my Kumekucha raw notes subscribers sent me a very angry email recently. He was wondering why I am always writing about State house this and State house that. “Don’t you have anything else to write about?” Another of my subscribers mockingly wrote to me pointing to a report I had written about the inner circles of TNA wanting to go for a rookie candidate for Uhuru’s running mate. “Ruto cannot be described as a rookie by any stretch of the English language…” they told me.

My raw notes subscribers do not pay me to sit down and create theories or go to bars to listen to gossip and then rehash that info. They pay for insider information and I always focus on giving them exactly that. It is NOT about me being proved right or wrong. Those with a little experience in the game of politics will know that it is usually very fluid and it will get more so as we head closer to the general elections. My work is to tell you what is happening and sometimes what’s taking place now may lead people to end up in a very different destination. Does that mean I was wrong telling you what was going on then?

After what has happened in the last few days, I hope it is now clear why I have been seemingly “obsessed” with State house. That is where Kenyan politics is being driven from at the moment. I don’t like it any more than you do but that happens to be the reality. I just laugh when people come up with all kinds of fancy, clever theories and analysis of what is going on. And some of these people are senior political reporters in leading newspapers.

The dark forces forcing Uhuru into making pacts are not from Mars. Try a well guarded address along State house Road, Nairobi. Why would Mudavadi cut his own feet and make public a secret pact? Try the same address as above for the answer. For now don’t ask me why, because I am still digging around to answer that puzzling million shilling question.

What beats me is why anybody would have thought for one minute that Uhuru stepping down for Mudavadi would deliver the Kikuyu vote lock sock and barrel to Mudavadi. Why it puzzles me is because I know the people running the presidential campaigns from State house are very smart people. But what the hell were they thinking?

Uhuru Kenyatta’s votes are NOT transferable to anybody not even to wildly popular Father Christmas himself.

In my view it is unfair for politicians to say that the Kikuyu have a bad habit of never voting for anybody other than their own and trying to apply that to our current political situation.

Let me tell you a little story. I like to ask questions constantly. Indeed I am always asking questions when I talk to people. When others are busy showing how clever and knowledgeable they are I am always asking questions and sometimes seemingly stupid questions.

The big question I have been asking is how did Uhuru grow so popular so suddenly? I have asked that question a million times in forums, villages, cities and everywhere. But those who know have been too ashamed to reveal the truth. Finally I discovered it just a few days ago.

In all the Kikuyu-bashing that has been going on most Kenyans have forgotten that the community which suffered the most and indeed has suffered like no other community on the entire continent of Africa are our dear Kikuyu brothers and sisters. Imagine a situation where you are a prosperous land owner one day employing thousands of farm hands and the very next day you are begging for food or sleeping with a sweaty smelly old man for cash to buy food at some IDP camp. Would you blame any community for getting terribly emotional?

Uhuru Kenyatta being charged at the ICC to the simple Kikuyu people on the ground is grave injustice. The people on the ground are saying; “They raped and plundered us and then they go and charge us for crimes against humanity letting off the aggressor lightly where the ring leaders ought to have been locked up and the key thrown in the middle of the Indian Ocean or even better the Atlantic.”

Uhuru Kenyatta is that kind of emotional candidate and that is the reason why the ICC arresting him just now would cause serious trouble on the ground.

Some Kumekucha readers read what a Mwangi or Kamau is saying in social forums and they assume that maybe Uhuru is not that popular. They forget that some of the people saying they will not vote for Uhuru hail from filthy rich families in Kiambu. But the political reality is that on  a small plot of 20 x 50 somewhere in Kiambu there are no less than 100 registered voters all saying, no Uhuru no voting while in the elitist families who read Kumekucha that is just the size of their swimming pool in a household with maybe 3 registered voters.

But having said that, for better or worse Uhuru’s candidature for the presidency is a train headed for a place called nowhere. He is a non-starter for the ballot even before the recent troubles. For the simple reason that the world is getting more serious about those whom they view as having committed crimes against humanity.

So where does that leave us? I will discuss this in the next post but let me give you a hint. For better or worse it suddenly makes one Peter Kenneth a very serious contender for the presidency.

This post is dedicated to my very good lady friend in the UK who wrote the following email to me this morning; “Chris , yu said it. Things are turning out funny. these politicians are so shameless. This Mungatana guy has suddenly become their spokesman. What a shame. Please fill me in with the latest. This is just like a movie. It  can only happen in Kenya.”


You will also enjoy reading shocking revelations in the following articles;

Where it all started Uhuru's secret deal with Kibaki in 2007
Just how clean is Mr. Safi Kama Pamba Peter Kenneth?

Is Uhuru Kenyatta a drunkard?

What is it that leading Presidential candidates in 2013 don't want you to know?

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Fugitives of the International Criminal Court Flocking Together

Now that members of the so called Jubilee Alliance are so obsessed with contradicting Prime Minister Raila Odinga and working overdrive to act exact counter to any political step he takes, Kenyans are anxiously waiting for their next move to counter Zimbabwe Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai’s gracing of ODM’s historic National Delegates Convention last week .

We expect them to be inviting Zimbabwean dictator Dr. Robert Mugabe to be chief guest during their unveiling of their joint presidential candidate after the coming pre-determined nomination exercise between the two deputy Prime Ministers: - Uhuru Kenyatta and Musalia Mudavadi.

Kenyans won’t be shocked if the other guest of honor will be Sudan’s Gen. Omar al Bashir, the well known ICC fugitive.

 And talking of delegates, when did the URP (bank rolled by William Ruto) or UDF (bank rolled by Kibaki's kitchen cabinet), or even TNA (bankrolled by Kenyatta family) ever conduct grassroot elections to elect delegates that they are purportedly preparing to mobilise to select a presidential candidate? And why is URP's position as running mate locked and not open to democratic competition? See the mockery of democracy?

Of interest will be the main speeches. Observers are waiting with baited breath to see Dr. Mugabe urging them to be confident he will help them once in power on how to cling on to power next year if the Western powers decide to slap Kenyan with sanctions.

We can foresee an arrogant Dr. Mugabe advising the Jubilee coalition to organize in advance how to kick out European farmer, tourists, diplomats and investors, who are nothing but agents of neo-colonialists out to exploit Kenyans. He will urge Kenyans to prepare to be eating and surviving on one meal per day during the Jubilee presidency.

Of course he won’t fail to advice them strongly to revive the old special Branch, secret police units and violent youth groups to deploy regularly to protect the Jubilee presidency from the opposition who, he says are on the payroll of the colonialists. Kenyans are eager to listen to Gen. Al Bashir’s speech a speech that will plead with Kenyan voters to vote in the Jubilee Alliance, and especially the two ICC suspects so that Kenya and Sudan can form a confederation (Political Union) as a free region detached from the new International order, including the United Nations and the ICC.

It will be delirious to hear him promise to bankroll the Jubilee Alliance’s presidential candidate to ensure maximum victory. But many will be left wondering why if he is so moneyed why he has grabbed rich oil wells from the poor southern Sudanese neighbors.

May be the two great guests of the Jubilee Alliance will sign a “Nairobi declaration” with Jubilee Alliance’s Principal Uhuru Kenyatta to be prepared 24/7 to offer any of them sanctuary and political assylum in the event he is toppled by restless masses reacting to high inflation and humanitarian crisis.

Kenyans should be getting psychologically prepared to usher in a government on March 4,2013 whose chief advisors will be Dr. Mugabe and Gen. Omar El Bashir.

Saturday, December 01, 2012

Should Kenyans Forgive Mzee Kibaki's "Hakuna Haja" Because He Delivered A New Constitution?

President Mwai Kibaki with Prime Minister Raila Odinga 

By Kumekucha Reader
Of huge value for appreciating Mzee Mwai Kibaki's legacy and his footprint on all things political in Kenya, one has to delve into the ordinary wananchi's experiences and ways of thinking that have given birth to a totally different breed of raia in the last ten years.

Mzee Mwai Kibaki's legacy will be examined or viewed differently by his contemporaries and raia in various age brackets - 18-25, 26-35, 36-45, 46-55, 56-65, 66-75 - depending on whether their standard of living tremendously improved, became stagnant, or worsened during his reign.

Unfortunately for many of us living in this day and age, it is the next generations of Kenyans who will have the benefit of being given an extraordinary key to looking and understanding the full, unforgettable richness (or abysmal presidential record) of 'Mwai Kibaki's Legacy' by 2042, 2052 or 2062.

Thirty to fourty years of history may shed some very different light on Mzee Mwai Kibaki's presidency as one among the most sublime, meaningful, and redeeming moments the country has ever had since independence.

There are many of us who would beg to differ, and rightfully so, due to various reasons, including current political inclinations.

Thursday, November 29, 2012

What Legacy President Kibaki?

In a few weeks from now (and not soon enough for some) President  Mwai Kibaki will ride into the sunset. Actually the whole problem is that the president’s exit from State house will not be as simple as that this time round.

Most analysts and observers are certain that when Kenya’s third president leaves office he will suddenly find himself entangled in all kinds of legal problems including a summons from the International Criminal Courts (ICC) at the Hague.

But his possible legal problems aside, now is a good time to ask what kind of legacy the Othaya legislator will leave behind. How will he be remembered? How will he compare to his predecessor President Daniel arap Moi in the eyes of historians?

In politics perception is everything but my guess is that you read this blog for a little more than that so let’s start with the hard facts.

Under Mwai Kibaki Kenya has changed a great deal and  a solid foundation has been laid for future rapid development. The CDF program for instance started under Kibaki’s presidency and despite numerous reports of looting and mismanagement of the fund the truth is that it has had a real impact on the lives of many Kenyans in many corners of the republic. The country is also better managed and the infrastructural achievements under Kibaki are nothing short of breathtaking the crown in the jewel being the recently completed Thika super highway.

Admittedly this president’s achievements have been overshadowed by his laid back management style that often left a dangerous leadership vacuum in a young nation that has been accustomed to seeking leadership and direction at every turn. Not to mention the kind of unprecedented nepotism that makes Moi look like a poor imitation. But most of all this is a president who will stand out in the minds of millions of Kenyans as the one under whose watch the country slipped into its’ darkest hour yet when in early 2008 chaos erupted after a presidential election whose real winner is still a deep mystery.

The bottom line is that Kibaki will be remembered not for his achievements but for what went wrong in the country during his tenure. Many will never forget that he went on national television to tell lies about his personal life and deny his second wife and family. Not exactly the kind of character that would inspire confidence let alone in the highest office in the land.

Supporters of the president will be quick to point to the fact that it was one Raila Odinga who messed up what would have been Kibaki’s peaceful and productive tenure by putting the country on a permanent election campaign mode shortly after the 2002 polls when Kibaki reneged on the MOU (memorandum of understanding) that his faction of the national Rainbow coalition had with Kibaki’s faction. Although there is plenty of truth in that allegation you can be sure that folks will hardly analyze the Kibaki presidency in those terms in the years to come. Rather what will be brought into sharp focus will be his failings as a leader and of that there is plenty. In fact the early Kibaki years were nothing but a collection of blunders. Still the biggest mistake this man made was to refuse to accept the people’s verdict during the 2007 general elections and his failure to protect the lives of innocent Kenyans after that when all hell broke loose.

And saddest of all most will want to downplay the fact that it was under President Kibaki that the country got a new constitution. Hardly surprising when the same President Kibaki has been at the forefront of undermining the very constitution he worked so hard to deliver to Kenyans.

At best the Kibaki presidency will be seen as one with many contradictions at worst it will be used as an example for many decades to come, of the disaster that can result from the poor management and decision-making ability of any leader or manager.

Raila's Epitaph: Inspired G7, Lost 5 to Become G1

They came breathing political fire and brimstone packaged as a potent G7. In no time the real owners G2 took charge and Kenyan politics has never been the same again ever since.

The mad season of political coalitions is here. The December 4, 2012 deadline promises to see to may political moves and counter mover Kenyans may as well be left in a delirium.

But one political fulcrum whose main joint has been left unhinged in PM Raila Odinga. The captain of is seeing the hitherto MV ODM capsizing faster than the might Titanic did exactly 100 year ago.

Not for lack of trying, far from it. Raila remains the most formidable politician in Kenya. But the sheen that madehim unbwogable in 2007 has come off.

Politics is a fickle game. So much perishable is politics that Raila cannot just recreate the superlative force he was in last elections. Maybe those who STOLE the elections from him knew that he never be the second time lucky.

Make no mistake, Raila's lack of grinding force does not necessarily translate into shoe-in for the Uhuruto victory. The coalition of the accused will soon come tumbling like the Tower of Babel. The ICC glue holding them together is like wax now that the new-found bravado is cheating them to fly near the sun.

The folly of making the next election a referendum on the ICC will backfire in all directions. Forget rants from cheap pundits always lurking online to pounce on breaking news with glee as analysis.

Make no mistake, no amount of political laundering will cleanse the evil duo from CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY.

Back to Raila. The son of Jaramogi would do himself a favour in retracing his steps. But again time is not on his side. The present business of cobbling tribal alliances will only succeed in polarizing Kenya more.

While Mudavadi has been left high and dry after being fooled to decamp from ODM, Kalonzo will never tire telling Kenyans they owe him plenty. So trinity vices of embarrassment, false pride and misplaced sense of entitlement will not see the birth of any formidable third force.

So as we polish Raila's political epitaph in golden letters, secure your vantage seat, fasten your straps and brace yourself for a long and eventful political duel in the next 100 days.

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Kibaki Seals Statesman Legacy With Noble Launch

KUMEKUCHA would formally wish to go on record as extending an open apology to, and publicly retracting from our former harsh unwarranted opinion on the Kibaki Legacy. no hard feelings?

The formal opening of the state of the art million shilling Syokimau Train Station and rail service today proved H.E. P.O.R.K's critics are simply ethnic wanaNICHI who since 2002 remain visionLESS enslaved to small thinking and talk.

H.E. P.O.R.K. has never lost sight of his main agenda KAZI IENDELEE. Petty talk on elections next year, IDPs PEV, heightened national ethnic tension, I.C.C. etc all take a back seat to H.E.'s singular determination and steadfastness to steer Kenya to greener pastures as enumerated in vision 2030.

The essence of H.E.s presidency is evincing the political giraffe metaphor through actions that speak louder than words as only the best P.O.R.K ever could do. Such actions toasting leadership success from the front and by example have roped in Kenyans across the country to emotively chant "run for a 3rd term"! "run for a 3rd term"!

With the opening of the train line between Embakassi and the Central Business District, H.E.P.O.R.K has now not only left Kenyans cruising on the path of superhighway but also quaking in the wake of implemented radical and positive ideas whose time had come and was long past due. Make no mistake what one man does with his "half loaf " is another man's poison

The naysayers are now eating humble pie while exposing their post molars in delight from seeing the patient fruits of H.E.'s vision that could not fully be harvested as a one term presidency. The end has justified the means as Kenya full overtakes Singapore's GDP economyNA BADO

Monday, November 12, 2012

Uhuruto: Kenya's Two-horse Race to Destruction

Peter Kenneth may have done his best to market his ideas as a presidential candidate. But deep down the MP for Gatanga is not naive to Kenyans penchant to go tribal at the ballot.

The presidential field has been trimmed to the predictable five populated by the BIG FIVE TRIBES - say a prayer for the small tribes. But it is the Uhuruto axis that has generated more political heat given what is at stake for the pair.

They are joined at the Dutch heap. The sword of damocles that is The Hague is hanging precarious above the duo's heads so much so that the only way is to rope in Kenyan voters and commit a political harakiri.

Damn the consequences. So far the respective ethic voters are playing along. The two are very smart politicians and they are not naive to reveal the true plot to their gullible supporters.

Self-preservation packaged in hollow sovereignty and patriotism has never been so cleverly articulated in shuttle diplomacy episode II.

Poor Kalonzo has been left holding both the dirty water and dead baby. He refused to see the bold writing in capital letters staring at him. Brother Stevo ended up wailing louder than the bereaved about the G7 Tower of Babel oblivious of the sting from its true owners.

PM Raila may soon curse what he wished for. The two horses may as well have bolted with Kenyan voters to The Hague.

We haven't seen anything yet. The next three months will Kenyan politics charged like neve3r before. The old tribal stereotypes will come flying left, right and centre. NA BADO

Tuesday, November 06, 2012

The Hague Referendum Aimed to Burn with Kenya

Like him hate him, Cherangani MP Joshua Kuttuny has a way with words. And when it matters most his gliding lips minces no words and he says-it-as-it-is. No diplospeak. He has told all and sundry that next year's elections is a referendum on The Hague. Period.

Forget where all The Hague business earned its first coin. We did not take ourselves to that place it came seeking us with a laser guided missile. You must remember the nation's battle cry 'NO HAGUE, LET'S BE VAGUE'.

And golden pair Uhuruto have declared the elections must be worn first round so that they can concentrate in defending themselves at The Hague. Make no mistake, you don't need to be a resident president. Ruto has spelt it clearly that he can remotely rule by ICT. We have been paying absentee MPs for ages, why not upgrade?

You cannot blame the conjoined twins Uhuruto. Their fate is so similar and so bleak only winning the Presidency and using it appears the only path to beat ICC. And don't engage your fertile imagination to extrapolate into what they are not saying.

So will Kenyans play ball and help bail out our prodigal political twins? No need for guessing they have done the maths and it looks promising.

Uhuru and Ruto knows all they need is have to their respective communities under lock and key. After that the rotund Gambian Fatou Bensouda is cooked goose.

Tempting ICC gods

Forget the moribund G7. That was a warmup kit before the main match by two friendly parties. Give it to Jomo Junior, what he has done with T(i)NA within these last few months ss incredible. He would not have had the leeway to do as he pleases with Kanu.

Raila never saw it coming. Even his sojourn with Kalenjin Elders will not save him this time. The die is cast and all the faces bear no resemblance to son of Jaramogi. What a rude political send off for the prime Minister.

The diplomat Stevo true to his calling still harbours hope that some miracle will happen and he will feast on the fallen limbs. Politics must be a very rude sport. Just ask Musalia Mudavadi who was bought new political sails only to be left in the doldrums at the mercy of UPEPO WA KUSI.

Uhuruto has all it takes to tempt both the gods of ICC and fate itself. We haven't seen anything yet. The game has been determined and the Kenyan voter has been squarely roped in. Playing is just but a routine.

No need for abstract theories. The two suspects need power to twin their fate with Kenya. Game over and damn the consequences. NA BADO.

Monday, October 29, 2012

Bwana Kibaki Please Give Us Back What We Gave You… Roho Safi

I can remember 2002 as if it were just yesterday. The celebrations going on in Nairobi at Uhuru Park as some Kenyans pelted the then President Moi with mud. We just couldn’t wait for Mzee Moi to get the hell out of State House and out of our lives. Oh boy if only we knew then what we know now. Many of us have very deep regrets and if Moi stood for presidency again today we would vote him in again without hesitation. But all that is water under the bridge now, I need to stay on topic here.

We Kenyans handed over the presidency of the republic of Kenya to somebody we thought we could trust. A man who had come to us humbly with his hat in his hand and requested us for the presidency of Kenya. He told us all in broad daylight that he was a one term president. ONE TERM!!! We liked that and it was one of the things that convinced us to vote for him with all our hearts because we were already very tired about people thinking that the presidency of Kenya was some personal property or some kind of royal throne where you have to either die in office or get forcibly removed somehow. We liked this man Kibaki who said five years were enough for him. In those days we were not yet pumbavus nor were we mavi ya kuku… at least not yet. We were still wananchi watukufu.

Now fast forward to 2012 and Kenyans are very concerned. Have you noticed how every time it is time for President Kibaki to leave tension rises considerably in the country and people begin to die? Let’s cast our minds back to 2007. Many of us cast a protest vote against Mr Kibaki for amongst other things breaking his promise to us to be a one tern president. What happened? He refused to leave and used the very powers we had given him to cling to power. But what was probably a lot worse was the fact that so many innocent Kenyans had to die. He was the president. He had power to save lives. To make quick decisions that would have spared precious Kenyan lives. He chose not to. In fact if truth be told we can scarcely recognize the man sitting in State house right now. What happened to that humble one term president we elected?

Still, of much more concern is what is happening in our country today. President Kibaki should have left in August according to what is written in black and white in the new constitution. The one he swore in front of us to defend. He had the power to ensure that elections were held on schedule in August. Instead there is plenty of evidence that people close to him threw some spanner in the works and indeed they are still doing so because we rapidly heading to November and there is no sign of Kibaki leaving State house any time soon. Oh yes we have heard all those people he has sent to us to tell us that he had no intention of overstaying his welcome and will leave office, but how shall we believe that from the same man who told us he would be a one term president. From the man who said corruption would be a thing of the past. And more recently from the president who has forcibly tried to push through his own people (not once but several times) to key positions in total contravention of the constitution? Surely Kenyans have a right never again to believe what his Excellency says.

More worrying is that the same trend we saw in 2007 is repeating itself before our very eyes with a vengeance. Until now we have been fairly peaceful but now it is time again for President Kibaki to leave and all of a sudden there is lots of tension in the country and plenty of violence and flair ups all over the place. Is it a coincident? I don’t think so. The stories and information I am receiving bares me out.

I have a very simple humble request to our president on behalf of Kenyans. Please please, give us back what we gave you roho safi. We have nothing to do with whatever personal problems you may be having with the ICC, heck we were in fact victims of the decisions you took in 2007 and 2008 and we are yet to even heal. So please, don’t involve us. Just leave in peace without any more delays. Let the violence and flair ups stop. Even if your people are not involved you have the power to stop it don’t you? You showed us that power when you suddenly sent troops to Somalia to secure our borders (one of the best decisions you have ever made according to me) can a little thing like some tribal disturbances elude you and the formidable security apparatus in Kenya? I think not.

I have used great restrain in writing this post. I don’t think I have been abusive or even punched under the belt. I have not repeated the unprintable things those who voted for you are saying out there. I have been a gentleman. Roho safi please give the country back and retire earliest in peace.

Thank you.

P.S. I am aware of the vast resources being spent to spy on ordinary harmless Kenyans like myself and I would suggest that this is a good time to shift attention and resources away from pumbavus and mavi ya kukus to where they are badly needed. I am a patriotic Kenyan who only wants the best for my country. I am not alone, there are so many others. I hear them every day complain about the corruption and troubles in this country.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Bold Bensouda Shames Devil, Calls Aspirants Bluff

Special Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda did not disappoint in her maiden tourist voyage to the country..

Following a warm reception, the black liberator of Kenyan impunity set a different tone to her visit by refusing to follow in her predecessor's footsteps. Instead of adopting Kenya's world famous wildlife, the Gambian native choose instead to skilfully tighten the noose already hanging tightly over the neck of Kenyan masters of impunity

The dark skinned Bensouda has ably measured up to the calling of her office by skilfully juggling between rounds of diplomacy with the President,PM,CJ,AG, DPP,P.C.,and Director of Witness Protection tactfully thanking all for supporting her candidature as ICC Prosecutor while shamelessly sharpening the Hague guillotine reminding the 3 arms of Government of their culpability in failing for 5 years to set up a local tribunal mechanism to bring the perpetrators of the post-election violence to justice

In one fell swoop the African Prosecutor tactfully called Presidential aspirant's bluff at the same time dealing a blow to their faint hearted apologists by wisely indicating she is not against any ethnic community thereby leaving none in doubt that the Kenyan tribal stereotype does not play a role in the facts stacked against PEV suspects

Fatou Bensouda may not be everybody's hero but the West African born ICC successor has proven she competently carries the baton handed down to her by predecessor Argentinian Ocampo in the tradition of wielding the blind double edge sword without fear or favor. All sectors of Kenyan society can continue to sleep easy at night knowing that the painful journey to end Kenya's cancer of impunity is finally drawing to a close NA BADO

Monday, October 22, 2012

No Biometric Voter Registration, Manual Chaos

Courtesy of SMG

Something nasty is cooking with regard to preparations for next year's elections. It is less than five months to the landmark polls and the Ahmed Ishaak-led IEBC appears ill prepared for its principal task.

It looks like we never learned any lessons from the near-Armageddon of 2007. The preparations for the next elections is so sloppy so much so that one shudders to imagine a repeat performance that will see dead Kenyans vote and polling stations registering 150% voting.

But the problem is clervely engineered to fail spectarcular. Look no further than the very Goverment. There is more to acquisition of the biometric voter registration equipment.

First the incompetent Government agrees a deal with Canada to secure BVR. Canada then liaises with a French firm to procure the same. But the French firm is now demanding full payment before delivering a single BVR unit despite part-payment.

IEBC also exposed its incompetence when it failed to pass any tendering for BVR thanks to vested interests waiting in the wings for massive kickbacks. Well, the more things change the more they remain the same and even deteriorate.

One thing is certain, the next elections is going to be more chaotic than any other before it. And the consequences are so grim one is better off not even imagining.

Make no mistake, this is no happenstance. The real owners of Kenya need chaos to thrive and advance their selfish interests at our colective expense. And you know what, the Kenyan voter has his/her back bent already to offer them a ride.

The vested interests seconded to IEBC are on a mission to make sure the institution fails. You see, an effective IEBC will deny the power barons the ability to control and dictate matters. They won't allow that to happen. And the joke is on us. NA BADO.

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Avid Kumekucha Reader's Prediction On Political Alliances For The Presidency 2013

Thanks Chris.

Your take seems very well informed and comprehensive. I could just be swayed into seeing it your way :-)

What seems really surprising is that Kenyans outside Central province and Gema may still want to give the House of Mumbi another ten years at statehouse - that to me is really baffling considering all the kikuyu-bashing that has happened under Kibaki's watch.

Surely, they can't hate Raila that much! 

Indeed Raila's game plan and ultimate wish is to meet UK in the run-off so that he or most likely his lieutenants can go round the country posing one simple question to Kenyans: "Kwani, hakuna kina mama wengine inje ya Central Province ambao wanaweza kuzaa marais?" 

I know I would craft that message if I was his Communications Director!

But now if you place Mudavadi against Raila - that game plan collapses like a ton of bricks. Thats why my predictions are that UK will be on the ballot as Mudavadi's running mate. While Ruto will be on the ballot as Raila's running mate.
 


Kumekucha's response;
With the benefit of hindsight and having analyzed a number of previous presidential elections my take is that it is way too early to determine what will happen.

Let me give you an example. In 2002 people were busy predicting various alliances. Finally predictions started flying about how NAK (Kibaki, Wamalwa and Ngilu) were not strong enough to beat Kanu. You know what happen at the 11th hour when the professor of politics declared the Kanu presidential candidate to be one Uhuru Kenyatta. Everything fell apart for Kanu. But even then the predictions continued about how there was no way the brand new Narc coalition would hold together and that it would go the same way the original FORD that united the entire opposition went in 1992.

Well this time round they were almost right and analysts like yours truly who know these politicians only too well are still baffled to this day how Simoen Nyachae was the only casualty and Narc remained intact, at least until the elections were over when the predictions of a break up swiftly came to pass and the consequences were so grave that the chain of events that followed culminated in the senseless loss of life that we saw in 2008.

Having warned as to how it is way too early to make any predictions let me be the first to go against my own rule of thumb and suggest that these elections will be like no other. My gut feeling is that all these alliances and pacts will finally come to naught and that the most unexpected thing will happen to give us the most unexpected result.

About Raila handlers spooking the electorate with the very idea of another Kikuyu at the helm for another 10 years, I don't think this strategy will work with all the big communities. For instance the Kamba will prefer a Kikuyu for 20 years to Raila. I know it's puzzling, I too am amazed because even my late father (a Kamba) could not hide his utter disgust at the fact that I voted Raila in 2007. The elite can reason and make all their smart arguments but on the ground candidate Uhuru is popular enough to beat Raila without too much sweat. Again I emphasize it is NOT the outcome I would favour but it is the reality on the ground. It seems that Jomo Kenyatta's propaganda against our Luo brothers was pretty effective and will take a lot to shake off. It will also demonstrate to those who love to analyze these things how powerful a protest vote is and the difference it makes when you change the scenario so that it is no longer a factor.

If Elections Were Held Today Many Would NOT Like The Winner

Readers email question to Kumekucha - I am one of those Kenyans utterly convinced that Kenyan voters cannot/will not legitimately elect Uhuru immediately after a ten-year Kikuyu presidency. The presidency in Kenya firmly remains a tribal affair in the eyes of the majority and nothing much has changed regarding that perception over the last decade.

A- I hear what you are saying. It is what I hear from a lot of well educated elitist Kenyans and it makes plenty of sense. I think the problem is that my analysis on kumekucha is based on the facts on the ground and what the vast majority of voters are saying.

Personally I would hate to see another Kikuyu president because it is NOT good for the country for obvious reasons. However the reason why Kumekucha has such an amazing record for predicting political outcomes many months in advance is because I try as much as possible to keep my elitist views and opinions out of what I write.

Let me clarify the facts about Uhuru;

(i) The Kikuyu vote by itself (sheer numbers) is enough to get Uhuru to the run off, more  so because of the crowded field running for the presidency. But my facts on the ground indicate that candidate Uhuru has more support than just the Kikuyu vote. For instance he has solid backing from the extended GEMA bloc.

ii) Raila Odinga's popularity is a mirage that will melt before the eyes of Kenyans. Raila won the 2007 elections by a landslide (according to the figures I got of the real election results). However the votes he got were protest votes against Kibaki and Kikuyu dominance. This time round there will be no protest vote against the Kikuyu and even if there is it will not necessarily go to Raila Odinga.

iii) My facts and figures on the ground agree with what a vast majority of pollsters are saying. That if elections were held today the run off would end up being between Raila and Uhuru. Now when you have a choice of two candidates everything changes. Tribalism is watered down because the electorate have a choice of only 2 candidates. Namely Uhuru and Raila. GEMA are with Uhuru. The Kamba will never vote Raila. Coast province are very pissed off with Raila just now for many reasons. Western Kenya are mostly anti-Raila these days. Let me just stop there because I am sure you get my drift by now.

Monday, October 15, 2012

Political Transfer Window Open, Cold Fireworks

Less than five months to go and the open political window is destined to see more intense activity like never before.

You will here and witness numerous alliances that break even before the handshake is over. Welcome to Kenya's well-known ritual of political prostitution and laundering.

Already we are witness to a flurry of activities seeing engagement of foreign consultants engaged to spin facts. Who said foreigners should leave Kenyans alone?

You won't believe the faces on camera exposing their post molars in delight of forming alliances. Hitherto sworn enemies (sorry opponent is so soft in Kenyan politics) will be trooping to one side singing from both layers of their lips.

The adage no permanent friends nor enemies just permanent interests has never been more apt. Enjoy the show while it lasts.